A maximum entropy model for predicting wild boar distribution in Spain
Wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations in many areas of the Palearctic including the Iberian Peninsula have grown continuously over the last century. This increase has led to numerous different types of conflicts due to the damage these mammals can cause to agriculture, the problems they create in the c...
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| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | inglés |
| Publicado: |
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, CSIC: Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA)
2014
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/oaiart?codigo=4951579 |
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| Sumario: | Wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations in many areas of the Palearctic including the Iberian Peninsula have grown
continuously over the last century. This increase has led to numerous different types of conflicts due to the damage
these mammals can cause to agriculture, the problems they create in the conservation of natural areas, and the threat
they pose to animal health. In the context of both wildlife management and the design of health programs for disease
control, it is essential to know how wild boar are distributed on a large spatial scale. Given that the quantifying of the
distribution of wild species using census techniques is virtually impossible in the case of large-scale studies, modeling
techniques have thus to be used instead to estimate animals� distributions, densities, and abundances. In this study,
the potential distribution of wild boar in Spain was predicted by integrating data of presence and environmental variables
into a MaxEnt approach. We built and tested models using 100 bootstrapped replicates. For each replicate or simulation,
presence data was divided into two subsets that were used for model fitting (60% of the data) and cross-validation
(40% of the data). The final model was found to be accurate with an area under the receiver operating characteristic
curve (AUC) value of 0.79. Six explanatory variables for predicting wild boar distribution were identified on the basis
of the percentage of their contribution to the model. The model exhibited a high degree of predictive accuracy, which
has been confirmed by its agreement with satellite images and field surveys. |
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