Simulación del comportamiento de la COVID-19 por medio de dinámica de sistemas en Bogotá D. C.
The pandemic caused by COVID-19 has been one of the most recent events that has affected human society in different social, economic, cultural and educational aspects. This document aims to design a continuous simulation model through the System Dynamics to define the behavior and evolution of the C...
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| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | español |
| Publicado: |
2021
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/oaiart?codigo=8111574 |
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| Sumario: | The pandemic caused by COVID-19 has been one of the most recent events that has affected human society in different social, economic, cultural and educational aspects. This document aims to design a continuous simulation model through the System Dynamics to define the behavior and evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Bogotá DC. For this study, health data was taken regarding the number of infections and deaths during the year of pandemic, based on the theoretical models of Kermarck, SIC and the concepts of System Dynamics. The simulation model was development in the Vensim software. The results obtained by the simulation in a period of 24 months, a total of 993.421 infections were observed. Two scenarios are proposed with changes in the probability of contagion and the average interaction of people where it is validated that an increase in these factors accelerates the levels of infections and the number of deaths related to COVID-19. |
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