Coaliciones territoriales y mercados departamentales en el éxito conservador de las elecciones en Colombia (1970-2022)
This article examines how regional voting patterns explain the success of presidential candidacies in Colombia between 1970 and 2022. Utilizing logit models and Bayesian probability estimations, the study demonstrates that conservative victories do not stem from uniform national support but rather f...
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| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | español |
| Publicado: |
2026
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/oaiart?codigo=10787030 |
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| Sumario: | This article examines how regional voting patterns explain the success of presidential candidacies in Colombia between 1970 and 2022. Utilizing logit models and Bayesian probability estimations, the study demonstrates that conservative victories do not stem from uniform national support but rather from the strategic articulation of a territorial coalition grounded in the heterogeneous distribution of preferences. This electoral architecture relies on a differentiated management of local dynamics. Whereas in traditional bastions the strategic priority is to avoid fragmentation through the coordination of captive votes, in transition territories success is contingent upon the capacity to mobilize voters and mitigate abstention. The results reveal that winning in high-turnout departments, such as Antioquia, Boyacá, Caldas, Cundinamarca, Santander, and Tolima, constitutes a necessary but insufficient condition for reaching the presidency. Securing a national victory also requires winning in territories of smaller electoral magnitude, which significantly increases the probability of achieving a nationwide majority. The study concludes that the effectiveness of conservative candidacies lies in their ability to operate under a dual logic of coordination and democratic activation, according to the regional context. |
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